We are currently 13 points from safety with 13 games left in the season. This means we have to gain a point a match on Wigan (and a little less on West Ham & Charlton). How will this be accomplished?
Assuming the worst for the three camped above us (lose to everyone but each other and draw those matches), Wigan would end the season with 27 pts. and we would would need two draws in addition to the three wins over our fellow cellar-dwellers for a record of 3-2-8 and 28 pts. - Not bloody likely.
A more reasonable scenario is that one of the other three clubs would win at least one more and draw about half of their remaining matches. Assuming that to be Wigan, they'd end up with 35 pts., meaning the Hornets would need a record of 6-3-4 for the rest of the season. This is consistent with the points needed to avoid relegation in the past. Since Watford last graced the big leagues, the points needed have been:
34 - twice
35 - three times
37 and
43 Yikes!
How do we get there?
Beating West Ham, Wigan, and Charlton are given - if we can't do that we deserve relegation. That leaves three wins and three draws:
West Ham (A) - 3-9-14 18 pts.
Wigan (H) - 4-9-14 21 pts.
Everton (H) - Probably the toughest home win but it's got to be done - 5-9-14 24 pts.
Charlton (H) - 6-9-14 27 pts.
Hotspur (A) - Probably not - 6-9-15 27 pts.
Chelsea (H) - Not even with home field advantage - 6-9-16 27 pts.
M'Boro (A) - Again, tough away - 6-9-17 27 pts.
Portsmouth (H) - Fight to a draw - 6-10-17 28 pts.
Blackburn (A) - Nope - 6-10-18 28 pts.
Man City (H) - Another must-win - 7-10-18 31 pts.
Sheffield United (A) - Tough draw - 7-11-18 32 pts.
Reading (A) - Tougher draw - 7-12-18 33 pts.
Newcastle (H) - Win to clinch survival, much drinking - 8-12-18 36 pts.
Doable, but tough. Also requires no heroics (or excessive ineptitude) on the parts of Wigan, West Ham, or Charlton.
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