Wednesday, October 21, 2009

Most Competitive League: Part I

I was going through my FourFourTwo Season Preview this week (yes, I'm that far behind on my reading, thank you) and was stunned to see that they had put Hearts chances of winning the SPL at 100-1 even though they had picked them to finish 3rd. How uncompetitive must that league be, I thought, that the best non-Old Firm squad were such long shots?

So I looked at the other leagues to gauge which were the most, and least, competitive. As a proxy I looked at the odds of the projected 6th place team. Why 6th? Mostly because this was the worst you could be in the Championship and still have a shot at promotion.

So from least to most competitive:

Scottish Premier League (Dundee United) 150-1
Premiership (Tottenham Hotspur) 100-1
League One (Gillingham) 50-1
Championship (Preston North End) 20-1
League Two (Chesterfield) 14-1

Granted, this is a one team sample from each league and may reflect poor odds setting instead of competitiveness, so we'll take a look at more formal statistics as the season wears on, specifically rank-order statistics throughout the year. Until then, enjoy the competitions wherever you find them.

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